PETALING JAYA: A Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional pact for state elections next year could boost their chances of winning but only for a brief period, says an analyst.
Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said a pact would give the two coalitions a good chance to garner more Malay votes in six states, to the detriment of Perikatan Nasional which made big gains among Malay voters in the recent parliamentary general election.https://7e80494243c4d24b1bd42700e13090f7.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
“PN could lose because Malay-Muslim voters would be more inclined to vote for a party that is in the federal government,” he told FMT.
However, Azmi said a BN-PH electoral pact would also put the two coalitions at risk over time as BN would lose its status as the champion of Malay-Muslim rights because of its association with DAP, a member of PH.
As such, BN could start to lose its grip on its core base of voters.
“As for PH, it will lose its dominance in the federal government since there would be claims of BN influencing it,” he said, hence both blocs had something to prove to Malay-Muslim voters.
“From a strategic standpoint, I don’t think they should form any electoral pacts in the state or federal elections over the next few months (until their partnership has a positive track record).”
BN and PH are among the parties contesting the Pahang state assembly seat of Tioman and the Padang Serai parliamentary seat in Kedah following the deaths of two candidates before the general election.
On Saturday, PH’s Padang Serai candidate Sofee Razak urged BN’s C Sivaraj to step aside since BN was supporting PH in forming the government. In response, the MIC man said Sofee should make way for him instead since he “has been in the area” for three years.
Meanwhile, BN’s Tioman candidate Johari Hussain welcomed his PH counterpart’s readiness to make way for him in the contest for the state seat.
Elections for the state assemblies of Kedah, Penang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan will be held after the completion of the assemblies’ terms next year. The six state governments had decided not to dissolve their assemblies in line with the dissolution of Parliament.
James Chin of the University of Tasmania said supporters might not be open to an electoral pact between PH and BN for a full-blown election.
However, he believed pacts were possible for the Padang Serai and Tioman elections since it would not have much effect on the overall numbers in the federal or Pahang government.
“I think there is room for manoeuvring between the two coalitions because if they don’t come together they are making way for a PN win,” Chin said, adding that the best solution was for PH and BN to take one seat each.
“It does not guarantee victory but will mean a consolidation of votes if one pulls out because supporters will know they are in the same (government) so they are more likely to vote for the (government’s) candidate.
Dipetik dari : https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2022/11/29/ph-bn-polls-pact-for-2023-a-long-term-risk-says-analyst/